Economists have warned for weeks that if Congress fails to raise the cap on the amount the Treasury can borrow, the U.S. could default on its debt.

The calamity from a default would be enormous. U.S. government bonds are seen around the world as a safe haven — a place to put your money when you fear that stocks, commodities or other investments are too risky. Millions of investors and businesses trust the U.S. with trillions of dollars of wealth.

So the Aug. 2 deadline on which the government’s borrowing authority expires poses two important questions, whether you head a business, manage a corporate treasury or simply save for retirement.

First: What’s the likelihood of a bad scenario or a default?

Second: What can I do about it?

So far, the markets are betting big on a debt deal. Yes, Republicans are holding firm against tax increases and Democrats have offered too few concessions to satisfy them. Despite the gap and the rhetoric, the view goes, wiser heads surely will prevail to stop the game of political chicken before it causes a crash.

Yet there is a risk, however small, that national politics are just nutty enough at the moment that no last-minute deal is reached. This week, Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s Latest from The Business Journals Investors react to earnings, prompt late rallyStandard & Poor’s elevates MFA’s ratingsHow U.S. credit downgrade could hurt Missouri Follow this company and Moody’s Investors Service Moody’s Investors Service Latest from The Business Journals Is the debt apocalypse upon us?Is the debt apocalypse upon us?Moody’s warns of U.S. credit downgrade Follow this company said they may cut the nation’s credit rating.

“It is fair to say right now that the financial markets are trading with a 99 percent certainty that there will not be a default,” Staley said. “It is remarkable, actually,” he added. “I think even those in Washington have been surprised.”

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